The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has released its trade outlook for 2024, projecting a significant increase in exports from Africa, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and outpacing other regions.
According to the report, Africa’s exports are set to grow by 5.3% in 2024, marking the fastest pace of growth compared to other regions. However, the continent continues to face challenges in imports, with higher energy and commodity prices contributing to a decline in imports by 5% between 2019 and 2023 — the sharpest decline globally.
The report highlights that despite the growth in exports, the increase has not translated into higher consumption and income across the continent. Africa’s exports are rebounding from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the import decline signals ongoing economic challenges.
In terms of digital goods trade, Africa experienced growth in exports of digital goods, although it still represents a small portion (0.9%) of total exports in that category. Globally, exports of digital services saw a 9% growth in 2023, reaching $4.25 trillion, comprising around 13.8% of global exports of goods and services.
The WTO’s outlook for global trade anticipates a 2.6% growth in 2023 and a further 3.3% growth in 2024, following a decline of –1.2% in the previous year. However, the report highlights various risks, including geopolitical uncertainties, conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, and climate change effects impacting global supply chains.
Specifically, trade disruptions in the Suez Canal are identified as a flashpoint risk in 2024. The report notes that the longer transit times resulting from such disruptions could lead to increased container rates, impacting global trade flows.
Moreover, the forecast warns of potential spikes in food and energy prices, along with elevated interest rates in advanced economies, posing challenges to the recovery of global trade from the negative growth observed in 2023.
