The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has firmly denied reports suggesting it projected a global crude oil supply surplus for 2026, calling such claims inaccurate and misleading.
Okay News reports that the clarification came on Monday after a publication cited OPEC’s November Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) as the source of the alleged forecast.
In a statement, the OPEC secretariat said the purported surplus projection “cannot be attributed to OPEC”, stressing that the November MOMR contains no reference, assessment, or forecast that supports such a conclusion.
“MOMR does not make any statement or forecast regarding a supply surplus next year, nor does it provide an assessment that would support that conclusion,” the organisation said.
“Any such inference is the result of external interpretation and is not contained in the published analysis.”
The oil cartel warned that misrepresenting its reports could distort global market understanding and spark misinformation across the energy sector. It noted that all OPEC+ members retain “full flexibility in pausing or reversing the return of voluntary production adjustments in 2026”, depending on market realities.
OPEC urged analysts and media organisations to rely directly on its official publications to ensure accurate reporting, noting that the MOMR remains its authoritative near-term outlook.
Reinforcing the correction, Haitham Al-Ghais, OPEC Secretary-General, told CNBC that no part of the November report forecasts any surplus in 2026.
“We do not preempt any ministerial decision that must happen. As you know, we have an agreement in place that ends at the end of 2026,” he said.
He explained that while the MOMR includes discussion of trade surpluses in certain economies, it does not address supply surpluses in market balance terms.
Al-Ghais also noted that eight OPEC+ member countries continue to meet monthly to adjust supply carefully and cautiously, in line with ongoing market conditions.
