Doctor Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, a former Special Adviser to Nigeria’s President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has warned that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) could still lose the 2027 general elections if it relies mainly on political defections, which he said do not automatically translate into votes.
Baba-Ahmed, who previously served as spokesperson for the Northern Elders Forum, a socio-political group of influential leaders from Northern Nigeria, spoke on Politics Today, a current affairs programme on Channels Television, a Nigerian television news network, on Tuesday, 20 January 2026.
Okay News reports that his comments come amid a wave of high-profile party switches ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 polls, with the APC receiving defectors from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), one of the country’s major opposition parties.
In recent weeks, several state governors across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones have been reported to have moved from the PDP to the APC, including Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State in southern Nigeria’s South-South region, Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State in the South-South, Douye Diri of Bayelsa State in the South-South, Peter Mbah of Enugu State in the South-East, Agbu Kefas of Taraba State in the North-East, and, most recently, Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State in the South-South.
The APC leadership in Kano State, a major political and commercial hub in Northern Nigeria, has also suggested that the state governor could be preparing to switch to the ruling party.
Beyond governors, Baba-Ahmed noted that other prominent politicians, including members of Nigeria’s National Assembly, the country’s federal legislature, as well as lawmakers in State Houses of Assembly, former governors, former ministers, and other party figures, have also changed political allegiance from the PDP to the APC.
While many defectors have given different reasons for crossing over, some Nigerians believe the moves are largely driven by personal political calculations, including a desire to secure re-election.
Baba-Ahmed said the APC risks misreading the political moment if it assumes that building a large coalition of officeholders guarantees success at the ballot box.
He stated, “Defection does not guarantee APC’s re-election. I think the assumptions and the calculations of the APC are fundamentally flawed. They think they have all the governors in their kitty, all the legislators, the entire country. The mistake they make is assuming that the opposition is weak, that there is nothing much to do, and that having all the governors and all the money in the world will automatically bring them back to power. Then they have to face the people.
“The quick assumption that one party’s structures automatically deliver victory is dangerous and difficult to organise. When I talk about structures, I am basically talking about money, the money to keep loyalists in place, the money for loyalists to mobilise votes on election day.
“If what (defection) we see here represents the actual spread of the APC across the country, two things have to happen. One, you have to hope that there are credible, free, and fair elections so that the votes of the people reflect this spread. This is very important, and many times people don’t take it into consideration. I was involved in the 2015 elections. We never had anything like this, but in 2015, President Buhari painted the entire North with APC colours and got huge numbers of votes from other parts of the country. People voted against politicians, and he won that election against the PDP.”
He added that the APC is mistaken if it believes that the presence of more politicians in its ranks automatically means the public will follow.
Baba-Ahmed continued, “They still have a huge amount of work to do. They must do two basic things, which are very difficult. First, they must vastly improve the perception of their record, not necessarily the record itself. Speaking from the street, I can tell you they have performed poorly; they do not command the kind of support among ordinary people that they think they have.
“The APC is presently very unpopular. It is a party of the elite, a party of officeholders, a party of people who are virtually guaranteed to return to power. That is very dangerous thinking. If they believe that they do not need to convince Nigerians, and that money and politicians alone will buy votes, they are mistaken. Citizens can reach a breaking point and reject such assumptions.
“Second, it depends on whether elections are free and fair. It is vital that the 2027 elections are conducted in a free, credible, and transparent manner. Otherwise, no matter how large the APC’s political network is, attempts to manipulate the process could backfire. Politicians may assume they have structures in place and that victory is guaranteed, but they should not tamper with the electoral process. Technology for election transmission is being developed between now and 2027, but no system is completely tamper-proof.
“Two factors give the APC confidence that having many politicians guarantees a return. First, these politicians are expected to campaign and convince Nigerians of the party’s record, especially the governors. Many governors, however, have massive problems in their states, and some have defected.
“Now, in a safe room, they assume that their new APC affiliation guarantees victory. They are doubly offending the population, they have not performed well, and they now wear a different jersey, thinking they can win against their former team. Complacency and arrogance are the two main risks that can result from this kind of political spread. I would argue that this has already contributed to setbacks in some areas.”
His warning points to two major risks for the ruling party as the 2027 election season approaches: first, voter anger over governance and economic hardship could outweigh elite political alliances; second, any doubts about the credibility of the process could produce backlash that undermines the same political advantage the party believes it is building.
