Lagos, Nigeria – Nigerian Bonny Light crude surged in March, posting its strongest monthly gain as disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz pushed global prices higher. The grade hit an intraday high near $119.50 per barrel and traded around $70 per barrel at the start of the month.
Okay News reports European refiners urgently sought light, sweet crude to replace lost Middle Eastern supplies, paying a premium that pushed Bonny Light to about $112 to $122 per barrel versus Brent. The premium reflected a geopolitical risk premium tied to potential shipping disruptions.
Nigeria’s production fell short of the 2026 budget target of 1.84 million barrels per day. Output averaged between 1.46 and 1.48 million barrels per day in the first two months of 2026, creating a shortfall of roughly 16.6 million barrels.
The price rally delivered windfall revenue for some producers while raising domestic fuel costs. Dangote Refinery adjusted gantry prices and petrol in Abuja ranged from N1,331 to N1,430 per liter, about $0.96 to $1.03 per liter using an exchange rate near N1,387 per US dollar.
Prices eased after some tanker-on-water inventories reached markets and diplomatic channels opened, pulling crude back from the $120 peak. However, analysts caution that damage to energy infrastructure could cause persistent supply shortages even if hostilities subside.
A Reuters survey showed OPEC output fell sharply in March and analysts raised 2026 Brent forecasts, reflecting the impact of export disruptions. If the situation endures, higher energy costs could add to inflationary pressure and complicate monetary policy decisions.
Traders will monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz, refinery throughput and Nigeria’s production data for signs of sustained price direction.
