Lagos, Nigeria – Europe may increasingly rely on Nigeria’s Dangote refinery for jet fuel supplies after disruptions in the Middle East cut off nearly one-fifth of global seaborne volumes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has left European buyers scrambling for alternatives.
Okay News reports that data from energy analytics firm Kpler shows European imports could fall by almost 300,000 barrels per day, with North West Europe alone losing 247,000 barrels daily. Traditional suppliers in Asia are redirecting shipments to meet stronger regional demand, while Indian cargoes face restrictions linked to European Union sanctions on Russian crude.
With Asian supply constrained, attention is shifting to the Atlantic Basin, particularly the United States Gulf Coast and West Africa. Kpler noted that Dangote exported about 89,000 barrels per day of jet fuel in 2025, positioning Nigeria as a potential alternative source for Europe. Analysts say West Africa has become structurally long on refined products due to Dangote’s output, meaning export volumes could remain available even if domestic supply is prioritized.
However, experts caution that neither West Africa nor the United States can fully offset the shortfall. Exports from the US Gulf Coast remain limited by Latin American demand, infrastructure constraints, and specification differences. Europe also faces logistical challenges in redistributing supplies, with refinery configurations and diesel commitments restricting local jet fuel output.
Sustainable aviation fuel is gaining traction in Europe due to regulatory mandates, but Kpler stressed it still accounts for only a small fraction of total supply. As a result, higher prices and longer trade routes are expected to rebalance the market in the near term, even with increased flows from Nigeria and the US.
