Analysts at Stanbic IBTC Bank have forecasted a surge in Nigeria’s headline inflation to 32.34 per cent year-on-year in December 2025, fuelled by heightened festive demand and base effects from the rebased Consumer Price Index.
Okay News reports that the projection, featured in the latest Stanbic IBTC Nigeria PMI report compiled by S&P Global, also estimates month-on-month inflation at 1.44 per cent, pushing the CPI index to 132.34.
Head of Equity Research West Africa Muyiwa Oni attributed the anticipated pickup to seasonal spending spikes on consumer goods and services during the December festivities.
He noted sharp increases in input costs (index at 64.4 from November’s near five-year low of 61.9), leading firms to raise selling prices—most notably in manufacturing.
The significant year-on-year jump stems partly from a low base in the corresponding period last year following the CPI rebasing.
Despite inflationary pressures, private-sector activity remained robust, with the headline PMI at 53.5 in December—only slightly below November’s 53.6—signalling the 13th consecutive month of expansion.
New orders strengthened on rising customer demand, output grew across all four monitored sectors (led by agriculture), and firms ramped up purchases and inventories.
Employment growth was marginal—the weakest since June—amid backlogs linked to power constraints and material shortages.
Business confidence rebounded to a six-month high, with 59 per cent of firms expecting higher output in 2026 through expansions, new branches, and exports.
Suppliers’ delivery times improved, though at the slowest pace in six months.
The bank forecasts GDP growth of 3.8 per cent in 2025 and 4.1 per cent in 2026, supported by manufacturing and services expansion, government investments, trade facilitation, and Dangote refinery spillovers.
Stabilising exchange rates and potential rate moderation could further boost consumption and investment.
November’s headline inflation had eased to 14.45 per cent from 16.05 per cent in October, per National Bureau of Statistics data.
