ABUJA, Nigeria — Gulf oil production disrupted by the Iran conflict could recover significantly within months if the Strait of Hormuz reopens safely and remains secure, according to Goldman Sachs in a report released on Friday, April 24, 2026.
Okay News reports that the investment bank estimated approximately 14.5 million barrels per day of Gulf crude output, representing roughly 57 percent of pre-war supply, was offline in April 2026.
Goldman Sachs said the pace of recovery will depend on logistics, well performance, and whether there are renewed attacks on energy infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz normally handles about one-fifth of global oil flows.
External forecasts cited by Goldman Sachs suggest Gulf producers could recover about 70 percent of lost output within three months and approximately 88 percent within six months if the waterway reopens and conditions remain stable. Spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could support a relatively swift production rebound.
The bank warned that logistical and operational constraints could slow supply restoration. Available empty tanker capacity in the Gulf has fallen by approximately 130 million barrels, or roughly 50 percent, limiting export flexibility. Prolonged well shut-ins could reduce flow rates, particularly in lower-pressure reservoirs, requiring technical work before full output resumes.
Iran and Iraq face higher recovery risks due to infrastructure challenges, sanctions, and reservoir characteristics. Saudi Arabia is expected to be better positioned to ramp up production faster than some regional peers.
Goldman Sachs earlier lowered its second-quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and United States crude to $90 and $87 a barrel respectively, following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The bank had previously projected Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices at $99 and $91 a barrel.
In March 2026, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast to $85 per barrel, significantly above Nigeria’s budget benchmark of $64.85.
