Lagos, Nigeria – Aviation fuel marketers say Nigerian airlines are likely to raise ticket prices and cancel more flights after the price of Jet A1 climbed past 2,000 naira per litre, more than double pre conflict levels of 950 to 1,000 naira before the Israel–United States–Iran crisis began on February 28, 2026.
Okay News reports that aviation fuel expert Peter Zira Dia said many marketers have struggled to restock over the past three weeks as costs surged, warning that even those able to buy fuel may not meet all aircraft needs on time, increasing the risk of serious delays and cancellations at already stretched airports.
Dia noted that jet fuel makes up more than 40 per cent of airline operating costs in Nigeria, meaning any sharp rise feeds directly into ticket pricing and flight reliability, and he predicted that fares will “definitely” go up as a result.
Adeyinka Adewole, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Raven Energy Nigeria, told Nairametrics that the cost burden will ultimately fall on passengers because airlines have little choice but to pass higher fuel prices on to those who fly, a pattern he said is being seen worldwide.
Adewole explained that Nigerian jet fuel prices are largely driven by international benchmarks such as the Platts jet fuel index, which jumped from about 780 to 850 dollars per metric ton before the conflict to over 1,600 dollars afterwards due to scarcity, stockpiling and fewer vessel movements, while the landing cost is further pushed up whenever the naira weakens against the dollar, even though Dangote Refinery operates locally.
Dia added that global pricing indices, mainly Platts and to a lesser extent Argus, underpin Jet A1 prices in Nigeria but are based on Northwest Europe, a region whose conditions differ from West Africa, and he argued that providers should develop reference prices for hubs such as offshore Lagos or Lome that better reflect local realities.
An industry source at one of Nigeria’s largest Jet A1 marketers said Dangote Refinery already supplies more than 90 per cent of the aviation fuel market, with big marketers lifting either by coastal loading or gantry loading and then trucking fuel to airports on a cash and carry basis in dollars, arrangements that smaller independent firms are finding harder to sustain as minimum gantry orders of around 1,000 metric tons become more expensive.
Adewole confirmed that Raven Energy sources fuel from Dangote through gantry loading and from domestic bulk storage tanks, and sector players stressed that Nigeria does not have its own Jet A1 specifications but relies on international standards such as ASTM D1655 and the United Kingdom Defence Standard 91 091, which ensure compliance for global airlines.
They also pointed out that maintaining compliant infrastructure is capital intensive, with a new 45,000 litre aircraft refueller built to specification on a European chassis costing up to 1 billion naira and a 20 year old used unit priced between 400 million and 500 million naira, while tighter supply has pushed marketers to prioritise airlines with strong finances and good repayment records as credit based fuel sales grow riskier.
Lower fuel volumes are hitting government income as well, because the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria charges a fee on every litre of Jet A1 sold at airports, so weaker sales reduce revenue at a time when the sector is under pressure from global disruptions.
The warning from Nigerian marketers comes as international reports suggest jet fuel shortages could soon force long haul flight cancellations on some routes, driven by restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for about 20 per cent of global oil flows, which has remained constrained during the Israel–United States–Iran standoff despite naval escorts and political risk coverage arranged by the United States.
Recent diplomatic brinkmanship, including a 48 hour ultimatum from President Donald Trump to Iran to reopen the strait or face strikes on energy facilities and a subsequent five day pause in planned air attacks, has so far failed to fully ease shipping and insurance concerns, leaving jet fuel markets tight and Nigerian airlines exposed to further cost spikes and supply risks.
