Lagos, Nigeria – Nigerian crude oil is projected to reach $100 per barrel this month as global supply chains face severe disruption. The price surge follows escalating military conflict between the United States and Iran that has nearly halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Okay News reports that Nigerian Bonny Light crude last traded above $90 per barrel, representing a roughly 33% increase this week. Brent crude prices surged above $92 on Friday, extending weekly gains to over 27%.
The federal government’s revenue is expected to rise sharply from this price spike. Nigeria’s 2026 budget was benchmarked at a much lower $64.85 per barrel, creating potential windfall gains for state finances.
However, Nigeria remains a net importer of refined fuels despite increased production from Dangote Refinery. Domestic fuel prices and inflation will likely increase as a result of global oil market volatility.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery raised petrol prices to N995 per litre at its gantry this week. The facility implemented two price increases totaling N221 within less than seven days.
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global oil supply daily. Maritime traffic through this critical passage has almost entirely stopped as Iran threatens to attack vessels attempting to cross.
Available oil supertankers in the Gulf region have reduced significantly. Producers are being forced to cut output as storage tanks fill up daily while oil cannot pass through the strait.
Physical energy markets already show significant strain. Diesel and jet fuel prices have skyrocketed due to refinery cuts across the Middle East and Asia.
Iran has launched missile attacks on energy facilities in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. These actions will lead to further tightening of global oil supplies.
Major financial institutions have issued stark forecasts. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs predict prices could exceed $100 and potentially reach $150 by summer if the strait remains blocked for several weeks.
President Donald Trump announced that the United States will provide naval escorts and insurance guarantees for oil tankers through Hormuz. This move aims to calm markets after gasoline prices rose higher than at any previous point during his presidency.
Qatar stopped liquefied natural gas production this week following attacks on its facilities. Iraq is also reducing output as the conflict disrupts regional energy flows.
Market participants warn that the global energy market has grown too complacent about prolonged closure risks. Any sign of hostilities ending or the strait reopening would cause prices to fall sharply again.
