Aviation sector growth crashed to 2.88 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, even as passengers grapple with high airfares, latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) have shown.
Okay News reports that the NBS Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q3 2025 indicated that the nominal year-on-year growth rate of air transport fell sharply to 2.88 per cent. This represents a significant drop from 30.60 per cent in the second quarter and 57.21 per cent in the first quarter of the year.
Despite the weaker growth rate, the value of output in the sector rose. Air transport GDP at current basic prices increased from N78.71 billion in Q3 2024 to N80.98 billion in Q3 2025. In Q1, the sector expanded from N67.28 billion in 2024 to N105.77 billion in 2025, while Q2 moved from N28.59 billion to N37.35 billion over the same period.
Volatile Quarterly Performance
A quarter-on-quarter review for 2025 shows how volatile the industry has been. The size of the sector dropped by about 64.7 per cent between Q1 and Q2, from N105.77 billion to N37.35 billion. It then more than doubled between Q2 and Q3, with output jumping by about 116.8 per cent to N80.98 billion.
However, because the comparison for growth is made against the same quarters of 2024, the year-on-year nominal growth rate still fell from 57.21 per cent in Q1 to 30.60 per cent in Q2 and 2.88 per cent in Q3. The data also show that air transport’s share of the total economy remains very small and slightly lower than a year earlier.
The sector accounted for 0.07 per cent of total GDP in Q3 2025, compared with 0.08 per cent in Q3 2024. Its share had stood at 0.11 per cent in Q1 2025 and 0.04 per cent in Q2. By contrast, the wider economy continued to expand in nominal terms, with GDP at current basic prices rising from N96.16 trillion in Q3 2024 to N113.59 trillion in Q3 2025.
Real growth numbers for aviation confirm that the sector has moved from deep contraction to modest expansion, even though momentum has eased. Air transport real GDP growth was negative throughout 2024, at –9.51 per cent in Q1, –11.18 per cent in Q2, and –9.90 per cent in Q3. In 2025, the sector returned to positive territory, posting –0.81 per cent in Q1, 6.34 per cent in Q2, and 1.60 per cent in Q3.
Senate Intervenes On High Airfares
The slowdown comes at a time when travellers are contending with high ticket prices, raising questions about how long the sector can sustain growth amid elevated costs and pressured demand. In a bid to tackle this, the Senate recently summoned the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, and major players in the aviation sector for an emergency interface.
The resolution was prompted by a motion sponsored by Senator Buhari Abdulfatai, who raised the alarm that the soaring ticket prices threaten national mobility and could severely disrupt end-of-year travel plans for millions of Nigerians. The upper chamber’s intervention comes amid reports that one-way tickets on several domestic routes—especially flights heading to the South-South and South-East—have skyrocketed by as much as 200 per cent.
A recent market check on airlines’ websites confirmed that some fares had climbed by over 150 per cent compared to pre-holiday prices, worsening concerns among travellers already grappling with inflation and rising transport costs. Senator Buhari noted that a one-way ticket from Abuja to Lagos now ranges between N400,000 and N600,000—an amount many citizens can no longer afford at a time when insecurity and poor road conditions have made air travel the preferred option.
