Nigeria’s current account balance is projected to strengthen in 2026, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) forecasting a surplus of $18.81 billion, up from $16.94 billion recorded in 2025, according to its latest macroeconomic outlook.
Okay News reports that the projected surplus represents 11.16 per cent of GDP, compared with 10.94 per cent in the previous year, reflecting expectations of stronger export receipts, improved remittance inflows, and continued foreign capital attraction.
The apex bank said portfolio investment inflows and external borrowings are expected to keep the financial account in a net borrowing position of $10.15 billion, supported by relatively attractive domestic yields in Nigeria’s financial markets.
According to the outlook, Nigeria’s International Investment Position is projected to record a net borrowing position of $69.58 billion in 2026, as higher yields continue to draw foreign capital, even as interest and dividend payments rise.
The CBN also projected that reforms in the foreign exchange market would help sustain exchange rate stability, while external reserves are expected to rise to $51.04 billion, providing additional buffers against external shocks.
On inflation, the bank noted that headline inflation moderated over most of 2025 following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics, declining from 24.48 per cent in January 2025 to an estimated annual average of 21.26 per cent.
The apex bank projected that inflation would further ease to an estimated 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven by lower food prices, reduced premium motor spirit costs, tighter monetary conditions, and improved fiscal-monetary coordination.
However, the CBN warned that inflation projections could be disrupted if fiscal spending exceeds benchmarks, global financial conditions deteriorate, or capital reversals trigger renewed exchange rate volatility, potentially forcing tighter monetary policy.
On the external sector, non-oil exports—particularly agricultural commodities and fertilisers—are expected to continue expanding, supported by government initiatives aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s export value chain and boosting creative and industrial exports.
Despite the positive outlook, total imports are projected to rise to $43.27 billion in 2026 from $39.92 billion in 2025, while the services account deficit is expected to widen due to higher freight, transport, and business service costs.
The CBN added that stronger diaspora remittances are projected to lift the secondary income account surplus to $26.13 billion, reinforcing Nigeria’s balance of payments position as the economy navigates ongoing global and domestic risks.
 forecasting a surplus of $18.81 billion, up from $16.94 billion recorded in 2025, according to its latest macroeconomic outlook.){kind=link}