Oil prices fell for a third consecutive day, reaching a 17-week low as the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of higher supply from OPEC+ weighed on the market.
Brent crude futures dropped by 72 cents, or 1.1 per cent, to $65.31 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 68 cents, also 1.1 per cent, to $61.69. Brent is on course for its weakest close since June 4, with WTI headed for its lowest since May 30. U.S. gasoline futures were also on track for their lowest settlement since September 2024.
Analysts said traders are bracing for OPEC+ to raise production in November by as much as 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), similar to September’s increase and larger than October’s. Sources noted that Saudi Arabia is keen to reclaim market share, though OPEC stated on X that media reports about a 500,000 bpd boost were misleading.
Market pressure was compounded by a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported an increase of 1.8 million barrels in the week ending September 26, compared with forecasts of a 1 million-barrel build. On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 3.7 million-barrel draw, highlighting volatility in supply data.
“The shutdown is already weighing on sentiment, and weaker exports alongside stock builds are reinforcing demand concerns,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.
The U.S. government entered shutdown on Wednesday after Congress and the White House failed to agree on a budget, disrupting economic data releases such as the September employment report. Private payrolls also unexpectedly fell in September, adding to signs of a softening labor market.
In Asia, manufacturing activity contracted across most major economies, further dampening demand outlook. Meanwhile, supply risks in Russia remain in focus following Ukrainian strikes. Russian officials confirmed local fuel shortages but said the overall domestic market remains under control. A fire at a Yaroslavl oil refinery was contained, with authorities ruling out links to drone attacks.
