ABUJA, Nigeria — Global oil supply could drop by as much as 7 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, the steepest quarterly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Bank has warned.
Okay News reports that the projection is contained in the World Bank’s “Commodity Market Outlook – April 2026” report, released on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The report expects the sharp fall to be driven largely by geopolitical tensions and severe disruptions in key oil-producing regions.
“In 2026Q2 alone, supply is projected to drop by almost 7 mb/d (6.6 percent; y/y), to 98.4 mb/d, the biggest quarterly fall since the COVID-19 pandemic,” the World Bank stated.
The report forecasts that global oil supply will decline by 1.5 million barrels per day, or 1.4 percent, over the full year. For the second quarter, the oil market is expected to record a deficit of roughly 3.7 million barrels per day, the largest on record according to the International Energy Agency.
Production among the OPEC+ group is forecast to decline by nearly 5 percent in 2026. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a large share of global oil and gas flows, are cited as a major factor behind the squeeze. Non-OPEC producers, especially the United States, are expected to partially offset the losses by increasing output by about 0.5 million barrels per day.
OPEC production dropped by 27.5 percent to 20.79 million barrels per day in March 2026, one of the steepest declines in decades. Nigeria’s crude production recovered to 1.84 million barrels per day in March, though the country continues to face challenges such as oil theft and infrastructure constraints.
The Federal Government adopted a 2.6 million barrels per day oil production benchmark for 2026 but is using a more conservative 1.8 million barrels per day for budget planning.
