The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production, excluding condensate, rose marginally to 1.544 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2025, up 1.44% from 1.522 million bpd in April, according to its June 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) based on secondary data sources.
Despite this slight increase, oil prices, including Nigeria’s benchmark Bonny Light, hovered around $73 per barrel—$2 below the $75 per barrel reference price used in Nigeria’s 2025 budget. The country’s N54.99 trillion budget is predicated on an oil price of $75 per barrel, output of 2.06 million bpd, and an exchange rate of N1,500 to the dollar.
This discrepancy between budget assumptions and actual production and prices has raised fresh fears about the feasibility of the budget. Gbenga Komolafe, CEO of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), emphasized ongoing efforts to boost output, stating: “As the regulator of Nigeria’s upstream petroleum industry, the NUPRC remains committed to providing a transparent, predictable, and investment-friendly environment that encourages the development of new crude streams and ensures optimal value for the Nigerians.”
The modest production increase comes amid broader OPEC+ efforts to manage supply and support prices, though Nigeria’s output remains below its budgeted target, underscoring challenges in meeting fiscal projections.
