China a country in East Asia and the second most populous nation on earth has shifted from a primary financier of African infrastructure to a net debt collector, marking a reversal of over $52 billion in financial flows over the past decade.
A report by ONE Data, an international data and policy analysis organization that tracks financial flows to developing countries to ensure they reach the world’s poorest nations, released on Tuesday, January 27, 2026, reveals that repayments to Beijing now consistently exceed new lending across the continent.
Okay News reports that net financial flows turned negative as African nations prioritized paying down existing obligations amid a sharp slowdown in new Chinese “mega-loans.” The report stated: “Africa went from receiving $30.4 billion in net flows from China in 2010–14 to paying out $22.1 billion in net flows to China over the last five years, a $52.5 billion swing.”
Collapsing Inflows and Rising Debt Service
The data highlights a significant contraction in Chinese engagement with low and lower-middle-income countries. Lending plummeted from $26.5 billion in 2018 to just $5.1 billion in 2024. During this same period, debt service payments to China rose from $10.6 billion to $17.4 billion.
Between 2020 and 2024, twenty African countries experienced net outflows to China, resulting in a total extraction of $33.8 billion. This “Great Reversal” is attributed to increased scrutiny by Chinese policy banks such as the Export-Import Bank of China (Exim Bank), a state-owned bank that acts as the financial arm for building railways and power plants abroad, on the economic returns of large-scale infrastructure.
Nigeria’s Exposure to Chinese Bilateral Debt
Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa and is located in West Africa. It remains highly exposed to this trend as China’s largest bilateral creditor. Data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), the specific government agency responsible for managing the country’s debt portfolio to ensure it remains affordable, shows that Nigeria’s debt to the Exim Bank of China stands at approximately $5.16 billion, representing over 80% of its total bilateral external debt.
As Chinese lending retreats, multilateral institutions like the World Bank have filled the void, doubling their funding over the last five years to provide 56% of net flows to developing nations. Analysts suggest this realignment forces African governments to adopt more disciplined fiscal accountability as they transition from relying on external bilateral lenders to managing rising domestic debt burdens.
