Analysts at Cordros Securities have raised their year-end target price for MTN Nigeria Communications Plc to N616.07, citing stronger-than-expected financial performance and sustained growth in data demand. The new target represents a 4.6% upward revision from the previous estimate of N588.74.
The upgrade, contained in a newly issued equity report released on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, follows MTN Nigeria’s robust nine-month results. The telecom operator posted 57.5% revenue growth, a 15.1-percentage-point expansion in EBITDA margin to 51.4%, and delivered earnings per share (EPS) of N35.77 over the reporting period.
Reaffirming a BUY recommendation, Cordros said the revised target price reflects a 29.7% upside from the stock’s closing price of N475.00, as of November 18. The firm also highlighted MTN Nigeria’s N5.00 interim dividend, equivalent to a 3.3% yield, and now estimates a total 2025 dividend of N15.50 per share.
Cordros projects that MTN will benefit from improved operating efficiency and a more stable macroeconomic environment next year. The firm forecasts a 70.7% decline in net finance costs to N389.84 billion, driven by rising finance income.
Data revenue is expected to remain the largest growth engine, with a projected 71.2% year-on-year increase. Voice revenue is also forecast to rise 52.5% year-on-year, supported by expanding customer activity. EBITDA margin is estimated at 51.6%, indicating sustained operating profitability.
Customer spending trends are expected to moderate but remain supportive. Cordros estimates that average revenue per user (ARPU) will grow 45.0% year-on-year to N5,053.55, while the subscriber base is projected to expand 7.1% to 86.61 million. The analysts also forecast a net foreign-exchange gain of N84.53 billion, reversing FX-related losses recorded in 2024.
Overall, Cordros expects MTN Nigeria to post a full-year 2025 EPS of N53.31, compared with a loss of N19.10 per share in 2024.
MTN Nigeria’s nine-month results underscore this optimism. The firm reported N1.12 trillion in pre-tax profit as of 30 September 2025, rebounding sharply from a N713.6 billion loss a year earlier. Third-quarter performance was particularly strong, with N504.2 billion in pre-tax profit, up from N37.7 billion in Q3 2024.
Revenue for the period climbed to N3.73 trillion, driven primarily by data services, which surged 73% to N1.97 trillion and accounted for more than half of total revenue. Voice services generated N1.19 trillion, rising 48% year-on-year, while other service categories contributed the remainder.
As MTN continues to scale its data-led strategy, analysts expect investor sentiment to strengthen toward year-end, anchored by the company’s improving margins, stabilising debt position and renewed profitability outlook.
