Lagos, Nigeria – Comercio Partners has projected that the naira could strengthen to as high as N1,200 per dollar in the first half of the year under its most optimistic scenario, while warning that the currency could weaken to between N1,500 and N1,600 per dollar in a downside case driven by weaker oil earnings and tighter global liquidity conditions.
Okay News reports that the cautious outlook comes as the naira opened March on a weaker note, depreciating by N14.86 on Monday to N1,378.25 per dollar at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market. In its latest macroeconomic outlook, the firm outlined three exchange rate scenarios anchored on oil production performance, global crude prices, capital inflows, and policy credibility.
The worst-case scenario assumes oil production underperforms government targets and Brent crude falls to between $50 and $60 per barrel amid a potential global recession, which would weaken foreign exchange earnings and widen fiscal deficits. Under the base case, the naira is expected to trade between N1,400 and N1,450 per dollar, with oil production meeting official targets and Brent averaging between $70 and $75 per barrel.
The most optimistic scenario sees the naira strengthening to between N1,200 and N1,350 per dollar, anchored on oil production rising above planned levels and Brent crude holding between $80 and $85 per barrel. This would materially boost FX supply, reinforce fiscal buffers, and attract stronger capital inflows supported by easing global rates and sustained reform momentum.
The outlook builds on what the firm described as a transformative year for the naira in 2025, when the currency recorded its first annual appreciation in 13 years, strengthening by about 6.87 percent against the US dollar. This naira forecast reflects the complex interplay of oil revenues, capital flows, and policy consistency in determining exchange rate stability. Sustaining positive naira forecast outcomes will depend on continued reform implementation and favourable external conditions.
