WASHINGTON, D.C., United States — The chief economist of the World Bank (WB), Indermit Gill, warned on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, that Middle Eastern conflicts could worsen the global hunger risk. He spoke during the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group in the American capital.
Currently, 300 million people worldwide face severe food shortages. Consequently, Gill predicted that this figure could increase by 20% very quickly due to secondary economic impacts. Okay News reports that the economist expressed deep concern regarding the immediate safety of the global food supply chain.
“You have about 300 million people who suffer from acute food insecurity already,” Indermit Gill said. “That’ll go up by about 20 percent very, very quickly” as knock-on effects grow. Furthermore, the economist highlighted how oil supply disruptions directly impact the cost of farming essential crops.
Fertilizer Costs Drive Global hunger risk
Specifically, the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East has caused fertilizer prices to spike. This is because these agricultural products rely heavily on inputs derived from oil and petrochemicals. In addition, higher costs for these materials may encourage nations to implement food export bans to protect their domestic supplies.
“Those export bans scare us massively,” Gill told the Agence France-Presse (AFP). Meanwhile, he explained that countries with fragile governments or those currently experiencing war remain the most vulnerable to these shifts. If the regional instability continues, a massive global hunger risk will soon stalk these nations.
At this time, the shortage of petrochemicals mostly impacts the continent of Asia. However, Gill warned that as the crisis persists, it will rapidly spread to countries throughout Africa. Furthermore, he noted that while current food stocks are stable, the real danger will emerge within a few months.
Economic Impacts on Vulnerable Populations
“The food that’s in the market right now has already been grown,” Gill said. Nevertheless, he warned that rising inflation will disproportionately hurt low-income families who spend most of their earnings on food and fuel. Consequently, a prolonged conflict until August could push global inflation from 3% to 4.7%.
In addition, the World Bank suggests that yearly global growth could drop by 40% in a worst-case scenario. This combination of high inflation and low growth creates a double blow for poor nations struggling with debt. Such economic pressure makes it harder for these countries to manage the rising global hunger risk.
Finally, Gill cautioned that overall growth figures might hide serious vulnerabilities in smaller nations. Large economies like the United States, China, and India often mask the true level of financial instability elsewhere. As the August deadline approaches, the World Bank views these extreme economic threats as increasingly likely.
