Nigeria’s reliance on foreign fuel suppliers is dwindling rapidly, a seismic shift driven by the burgeoning production of the Dangote Refinery. This unprecedented surge in domestic refining capacity has not only reduced the nation’s import bill but also sent shockwaves through the global oil market.
Data compiled by Vortexa Ltd. reveals a dramatic decline in fuel shipments to Nigeria. From January 1 to 24, 2025, imports hovered around a mere 110,000 barrels per day, marking the lowest level since 2017, when daily imports routinely exceeded 200,000 barrels and occasionally soared above 400,000.
“A significant portion of this import slowdown can be attributed to the ramp-up of the Dangote Refinery,” confirms Samantha Hartke, an analyst at Vortexa, in a statement to Bloomberg. “Northwest Europe, a key supplier to Nigeria, will now need to find alternative markets for its gasoline.”
Data from Insights Global further corroborates this assertion, indicating a record-high stockpile of gasoline in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region, a pivotal export hub for Nigerian-bound fuel. This surplus underscores the diminishing demand from Nigeria as domestic production gains traction.
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The Dangote Refinery, boasting the largest refining capacity in Africa and Europe, is rapidly transforming Nigeria’s energy landscape. While still ramping up to its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day by the end of the first quarter, its impact is already undeniable.
Furthermore, the United States is sending a substantial shipment of 12 million barrels of crude oil to the refinery. Africa Report recently reported that this shipment, currently en route to Nigeria, will arrive next month.
Dangote Refinery is currently not only meeting domestic demand but also making significant inroads into the export market. Dangote is exporting its premium motor spirit (PMS) to various African nations, such as Ghana, Togo, Cameroon, South Africa, and Angola, as well as to key European markets.
This remarkable shift in Nigeria’s energy landscape has far-reaching implications. Reduced reliance on imports translates to significant economic benefits, including substantial savings on foreign exchange and increased energy security. Moreover, the Dangote Refinery’s growing influence will likely reshape the global oil trade, forcing market players to adapt to the changing dynamics of the African energy market.
