Senior solar executives and independent energy analysts hold sharply differing views on the sector’s outlook for 2026, reflecting uncertainty from policy shifts, financing conditions, supply chain dynamics, and uneven demand.
Okay News reports that while some stakeholders anticipate recovery and expansion, others warn of structural weaknesses around regulation, margins, and capital access that could limit growth.
The divergence underscores a sector at a crossroads, with technological advances and declining module prices improving affordability, but market volatility and macroeconomic pressures posing significant challenges.
Mrs. Aisha Bulila, Managing Director of SolarTech Renewables Ltd, expressed cautious optimism, stating: “In 2026, we expect the market to stabilise and grow again, especially in regions with weak grid infrastructure. Energy demand is rising faster than utilities can keep up with, and solar remains the fastest solution.”
Yischai Beinisch, CEO of Daystar Power Group, highlighted positive momentum in Nigeria, driven by economic fundamentals and supportive regulation.
“We’re seeing strong momentum as more businesses recognise solar as a reliable and cost-effective solution. Efforts to encourage investment and strengthen the renewable energy framework are positive for the overall sector,” Beinisch said.
However, policy analyst Mr. Ibrahim Danjuma of the African Clean Energy Initiative cautioned that ultra-low-cost solar panels from overcapacity in manufacturing hubs could squeeze developer margins.
“Low prices alone do not guarantee a healthy market. If developers cannot secure affordable financing or operate within clear regulatory frameworks, growth will remain fragile,” Danjuma noted.
The African solar market has been shaped by unreliable grid supply, high fuel costs, and uneven regulatory support, with initiatives like Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan driving private sector participation over the past decade.
Solar hardware costs have fallen due to global overcapacity, while innovative financing models have expanded access for households, small businesses, and industrial users.
Governments increasingly view solar as key to addressing energy gaps, but currency volatility and import dependence continue to constrain growth in markets like Nigeria.
Recent data shows the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) estimates 5 million off-grid solar systems are needed for unpowered communities.
The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has proposed regulations allowing solar users to sell excess electricity to the grid, improving investment returns and stability.
Nigeria imported over 4 million solar panels in 2023, valued at $200 million, with imports reaching N125.29 billion by early 2025.
In 2024, Nigeria added 63.5 megawatts (MW) of new solar capacity, bringing total installed capacity to 385.7 MW.
Analysts note that demand for clean energy is rising, but sustainable growth depends on alignment among regulators, investors, and industry players.
