Lagos, Nigeria – Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price outlook upward, projecting that Brent crude will average $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, providing fresh context for Nigeria’s fiscal assumptions amid global market uncertainties.
Okay News reports that the new forecast was contained in the bank’s latest commodities outlook released on Sunday. The investment banking giant raised its fourth-quarter estimates by $6, reflecting tighter inventories and shifting market fundamentals.
The bank also adjusted its full-year projections upward compared to its previous estimates. Brent crude is now projected to average $64 per barrel in 2026, up from an earlier forecast of $56.
For West Texas Intermediate, the bank forecasts an average of $60 per barrel in 2026. This compares to a previous estimate of $52 for the US benchmark.
Goldman maintained its forecast of a 2.3 million barrels per day global oil surplus in 2026. The upward revision was largely attributed to lower crude inventories across OECD countries.
The bank expects OPEC+ to begin a gradual increase in output in the second quarter of 2026. It warned that Brent could fall by as much as $5 in the fourth quarter if sanctions relief for Iran or Russia unlocks additional supply.
The $60 Brent projection for Q4 2026 aligns closely with Nigeria’s fiscal planning assumptions. The Federal Executive Council adopted a benchmark oil price of $64 per barrel for the 2026 budget.
The council also approved an oil production benchmark of 2.6 million barrels per day for 2026. A more conservative 1.8 million barrels per day will be used for actual budget calculations.
