Lagos, Nigeria – The Naira could strengthen to below N1,000 against the US dollar before the end of 2026, Nigerian billionaire Femi Otedola has projected, citing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of full operating capacity as a turning point for the country’s foreign exchange outlook.
Okay News reports that Femi Otedola, chairman of Geregu Power Plc, made the projection in a social media post congratulating Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, on the refinery reaching its designed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. Otedola described the development as transformational for Nigeria and the continent.
“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” Otedola wrote. “I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year end is increasingly within reach.”
The refinery, located in the Lekki Free Trade Zone east of Lagos, is now capable of supplying up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit, or petrol, daily to the Nigerian domestic market. Nigeria has historically spent billions of dollars annually importing refined petroleum products due to limited domestic refining capacity, a trend that has exerted sustained pressure on the foreign exchange market. Fuel imports have traditionally been one of the largest components of Nigeria’s import bill, driving demand for US dollars and contributing to exchange rate volatility.
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Otedola further disclosed that Dangote has commenced an additional $12 billion expansion project aimed at increasing refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, a move that would surpass India’s Jamnagar refinery as the world’s largest. The expansion will also include the production of 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene, widely used in plastics and packaging, and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene, a key raw material for detergent manufacturing. Increased local production of these inputs could further reduce import dependence in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector and lower foreign exchange demand.
“Aliko is not stopping here,” Otedola wrote, noting that work on the expansion has already commenced in earnest.
The Dangote Refinery announced on Wednesday that it had reached its full designed capacity following the optimisation of its Crude Distillation Unit and Motor Spirit production block. The facility is now conducting a 72-hour series of performance test runs in collaboration with its United States-based technology licensor, UOP, to validate operational efficiency and confirm that all critical parameters meet global standards.
What happens next will depend on sustained crude oil supply, continued operational stability, and the successful execution of the expansion phase. The company has not provided a completion timeline for the new capacity, though Otedola’s naira forecast suggests market participants expect tangible foreign exchange benefits within the year.
