Lagos, Nigeria — United Bank for Africa, Zenith Bank and Access Corp are projected to post the strongest risk adjusted returns among Nigeria’s Tier 1 lenders in 2026, supported by capital appreciation, dividend strength and improving balance sheets, according to CardinalStone Research.
Okay News reports that the CardinalStone Banking Strategy Report published on February 10, 2026, projects total returns of 48.0 percent for UBA and 40.6 percent for Zenith Bank over the next year. These gains are expected to come from average capital appreciation of 36.6 percent and dividend yields of about 7.7 percent.
Access Corp is forecast to deliver a one year total return of 92.3 percent, the highest upside potential among major lenders. The bank currently trades at a price to book ratio of 0.4 times, below the EMEA peer average of 1.3 times, despite posting a return on equity of 17.4 percent. Analysts also project a dividend yield of 10.5 percent for the group as it shifts from acquisition led expansion to consolidation to improve efficiency and asset yields.
Zenith Bank’s earnings per share are expected to rise from ₦26.82 in FY2025 to ₦38.70 in FY2026 as loan forbearance regularisation strengthens profitability. GTCO is also positioned to benefit from renewed loan growth, maintaining payout ratios of 32.5 percent in FY2025 and 30.0 percent in FY2026.
In contrast, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated and Stanbic IBTC are projected to post negative capital returns of 3.5 percent and 1.6 percent respectively. Stanbic’s dividend yield is estimated at 5.1 percent, while ETI’s dividend pause weighs on outlook.
The report notes that Nigerian banking stocks performed strongly in 2025 despite concerns over the Central Bank’s exit from regulatory forbearance. Balance sheet clean ups, softer loan impairments and improved credit growth are expected to sustain earnings momentum into 2026.
Analysts maintain a constructive outlook on banking equities, with Tier 1 lenders seen as key drivers of market performance, blending dividend income with capital gains potential.
