The World Bank has retained its economic growth forecast for Nigeria at 4.4 per cent for both 2026 and 2027, signalling continued optimism about the country’s medium-term outlook despite ongoing structural challenges.
Okay News reports that this projection, detailed in the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, aligns with the earlier forecast published in its Nigeria Development Update (NDU) in October 2025.
The Bank also upgraded its 2026 growth estimate to 4.4 per cent, up from the 3.7 per cent forecast in its June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report, reflecting improving macroeconomic conditions.
The World Bank expects Nigeria’s economy to expand at 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, marking what it described as the fastest pace in over a decade.
This growth will be driven primarily by sustained expansion in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural production, and modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activities.
The Bank highlighted that ongoing economic reforms, particularly within the tax system, combined with prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting economic activity and strengthening macroeconomic stability.
It noted that these policy measures should help improve investor sentiment, reduce inflation further, and offset lower international oil prices with higher domestic output, thereby boosting fiscal revenues and strengthening the external balance.
The sustained emphasis on non-oil growth underscores the gradual impact of Nigeria’s economic diversification efforts aimed at reducing reliance on crude oil exports.
A stronger services sector and improved agricultural output could help create jobs, stabilise prices, and broaden the government’s revenue base over time.
For investors and policymakers, the World Bank’s forecast provides a measure of confidence that recent reforms may begin to yield tangible results, even as the country continues to navigate economic vulnerabilities.
Globally, the Bank expects the world economy to remain resilient, with growth easing slightly to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before rising to 2.7 per cent in 2027, an upward revision from its June forecast.
This improved global outlook reflects moderating inflation, stabilising financial conditions, and stronger-than-expected performance in several emerging and developing economies, even as geopolitical and climate-related risks remain elevated.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the Bank projects growth strengthening to 4.3 per cent in 2026, supported by economic reforms, resilient domestic investment, and easing inflation across the region.
Nairametrics earlier reported that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46 per cent year-on-year in real terms during the third quarter of 2024, according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
