Nigeria’s headline inflation rate slipped slightly to 15.10% in January 2026, down from 15.15% in December 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released on Monday, February 16, 2026, by the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s official data agency.
The marginal decline came against earlier expectations from some analysts who had projected that inflation could rise toward 19% in January 2026. Inflation is a key measure of how fast prices rise across the economy, and it directly affects household purchasing power, wages, and business costs.
The National Bureau of Statistics said the Consumer Price Index, a statistical measure that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services commonly bought by households, dropped to 127.4 in January 2026 from 131.2 in December 2025. That is a 3.8-point decline, indicating that average prices fell during the month.
The bureau said the headline inflation rate in January was 0.05 percentage points lower than the December figure. In its report, the National Bureau of Statistics stated, “The Consumer Price Index declined to 127.4 in January 2026, reflecting a 3.8-point decrease from the preceding month (131.2).
“In January 2026, the Headline inflation rate eased to 15.10 per cent, down from 15.15 per cent in December 2025. Looking at the movement, the January 2026 Headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.05 per cent compared to the December 2025 Headline inflation rate.”
On a year-on-year basis, the bureau reported that headline inflation in January 2026 was 15.10%, which it said was 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61% recorded in January 2025. Month-on-month, inflation was negative 2.88% in January, compared with 0.54% in December, meaning average prices declined in January after rising slightly the month before.
The National Bureau of Statistics also provided a longer-term view by comparing average inflation across 12 months. It said the percentage change in the average Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending January 2026, compared with the previous 12-month average, was 21.97%. That was a 4.37 percentage point increase compared with the 17.59% recorded in January 2025, highlighting that while the latest year-on-year rate is lower, inflation pressures over a longer period remain significant.
A closer look at location-based data showed that urban inflation, which tracks price changes in cities and towns, was 15.36% year-on-year in January 2026. That was sharply lower than the 29.45% recorded in January 2025. Month-on-month, urban inflation declined by 2.72% in January, compared with 0.99% in December. The 12-month average for urban inflation was 22.30%.
For rural areas, rural inflation was 14.44% year-on-year in January 2026, down from 25.04% in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation fell by 3.29% in January, compared with negative 0.55% in December. The 12-month average for rural inflation stood at 21.03%.
Food inflation, which is closely watched because of its impact on household budgets, recorded a notable slowdown. On a year-on-year basis, it stood at 8.89% in January 2026, which the bureau said was 20.73 percentage points lower than the 29.63% recorded in January 2025. Month-on-month, food inflation declined by 6.02% in January, compared with negative 0.36% in December.
The National Bureau of Statistics attributed the decline in food inflation to falling prices for specific items, including water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef and cassava. Okay News reports that food costs are often the most immediate pressure point for households, especially in lower-income communities where food takes up a large share of monthly spending.
The bureau also reported that the average annual rate of food inflation for the 12 months ending January 2026 was 20.29%, down from 38.47% recorded in January 2025.
Core inflation, a measure that excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices to show underlying inflation trends, stood at 17.72% year-on-year in January 2026, compared with 25.27% in January 2025. Month-on-month, core inflation declined by 1.69% in January, compared with 0.58% in December. The 12-month average core inflation rate was 22.84%, lower than the 27.24% recorded in January 2025.
At the subnational level, the bureau said Benue State in central Nigeria recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation rate at 22.48%, followed by Kogi State in central Nigeria at 20.98%, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Nigeria’s capital territory, at 19.25%.
The lowest year-on-year headline inflation rates were recorded in Ebonyi State in southeastern Nigeria at 8.72%, Katsina State in northwestern Nigeria at 8.94%, and Imo State in southeastern Nigeria at 10.61%.
On a month-on-month basis, Imo State and Ondo State in southwestern Nigeria recorded the highest increases at 1.93% and 1.932% respectively. The sharpest declines were recorded in Cross River State in southern Nigeria’s coastal region at negative 6.34%, Ogun State in southwestern Nigeria at negative 6.30%, and Kogi State at negative 6.03%.
For food inflation across states, Kogi State recorded the highest year-on-year rate at 19.84%, followed by Benue State at 18.38% and Adamawa State in northeastern Nigeria at 17.29%. The bureau said Ebonyi State, Abia State in southeastern Nigeria, and Imo State recorded the slowest rise in food prices.
